Accelerated Evolution: Analogous with Design?

This blog entry is about an idea I came up with while reading the New Scientist magazine. I had earlier been pondering the consequences of economic slow-down and this analogy appear to me, which has given me some insight. This inspiration came when reading a response to a December article, written in the letters column of the magazine.

The letter was concerning confusion over the concept of accelerated evolution, and is central to my idea. There are two forces that make up evolution: reproductive mutation, countered by another, what may be called “selection pressure”.

New Scientist reader, Richard Smithson, was replying to an article by David Holzman which had claimed that human evolution has accelerated over the past 40,000yrs. Smithson responds: “[Holzman] evidently means an increase in the frequency of mutations. He claims that this “contradicts the widely held notion that our technological and medical advances have removed most of the selection pressures acting upon us.”

Smithson goes on to point out that there is no contradiction. “In fact, a reduction in selection pressures can lead to a large number of mutations, because more individuals with “non-optimal” genotypes succeed in breeding. When the greatest selection pressures are applied, most members of a species fail to reproduce, leading to a reduction in genetic variability. It could be argued that it is under these conditions (for example following a major extinction) that evolution is most rapid.”

So, as Smithson points out, there are two forces, which are apparently inversely correlated. The rate of variation and pressure of selection.

Looking back at product launches at ISPO over the last few years, there've undoubtedly been some unusually wacky developments. Great fun, yes, but concepts that will remain marginal – only keeping small cult followings. Things like riverboards (www.bansheeriverboards.com), and the Airboard inflatable snow-sleds (www.airboard.com/flash.htm). With recession threatening Europe, and a gloomy reality in the US, how well will such products do?

The 5 "C"s of Consumer Confidence: A Diagram

The optimistic times that bought such products to life, can be seen as a time when the negative “pressure of selection” dropped as consumer confidence got to the level of “cocky”. The result is great variation and innovation. Now we are facing the possibility of both global recession and moreover, nasty consequences from global warming. The pressure of selection is surely at a high.

Whatever your take on the meaning of accelerated evolution, we've seen a proliferation of new design and new brands. And as a recession hits these newbies will be put to the toughest test: prosper in a harsh economic climate, or die.

I predict fewer Airboards, fewer hard-shell soft-shell hybrids, fewer soft-switches and integrated iPods, fewer gizmos and "additional features", and a leaning towards more durable product. When the going gets tough, the tough get going...